Changelog

New Content

Added dedicated APLD Revenue Analysis page with detailed breakdown of Q2 FY26 economics. The analysis reverse-engineers the per-MW run rate from partial-quarter data using actual energization dates (Phase I: Oct 27, Phase II: Nov 24).

Key Findings

• Q2 operated at 23% of theoretical capacity (2,100 MW-days vs 9,100 possible)
• $12M lease revenue on 23% utilization implies ~$52M full quarter run rate
• Implied rate of $2.08M per MW per year exceeds contract math ($1.67-1.83M)
• Stabilized 600 MW implies ~$1.25B annual HPC lease revenue
• At 85% NOI margin, implies ~$1.06B HPC NOI vs $10-11B enterprise value (~10x multiple)

Site Updates

Link added to APLD section (§8) pointing to the new analysis. Page will be updated quarterly as new data becomes available.

Results

APLD reported Q2 FY26 results (quarter ended November 30, 2025). Revenue of $126.6 million, up 250% year over year. First HPC lease revenue recognized: $12 million from the 100 MW facility at Polaris Forge 1. Adjusted EBITDA of $20.2 million. Adjusted net income at breakeven.

Execution Milestones

• 100 MW facility (ELN-02) delivered on schedule, fully energized
• 150 MW facility (ELN-03) under construction, expected calendar 2026
• Polaris Forge 2 (200 MW) broke ground, initial capacity expected 2026, full capacity early 2027
• Property and equipment on balance sheet: $2.0 billion, up from $1.24 billion six months prior

Balance Sheet

• Cash and restricted cash: $2.3 billion
• Total debt: $2.6 billion
• $2.35 billion senior secured notes closed (9.25%, due 2030)
• Macquarie preferred equity: $900 million drawn, $4.1 billion remaining capacity
• $100 million development loan facility added for new site pre-lease work

Forward Guidance

Management raised guidance, now expecting to exceed $1 billion NOI within five years. Company disclosed advanced discussions with a third investment-grade hyperscaler across multiple regions including additional Dakota sites and southern U.S. markets.

Position Initiated

NBIS (Nebius Group) added to the thesis as an adjacent position. Nebius operates the same GPU cloud model as IREN: own the hardware, sell compute. Two hyperscaler contracts totaling $20.4B:

• Microsoft: $17.4B over 5 years (option to $19.4B), Vineland NJ data center
• Meta: $3B over 5 years, deployed within 3 months of signing

Already generating revenue at scale, unlike most operators in the thesis. Power portfolio targeting 2.5 GW contracted by end of 2026.

Position Reframed

IREN moved from core thesis to adjacent position. The $9.7B Microsoft contract remains compelling. The 3 GW power portfolio is real. But IREN sells compute, not infrastructure. Buildings don't depreciate on NVIDIA's release cycle. GPUs do.

This isn't a downgrade. It's a categorization correction. The core thesis is "Follow the Watts": power as constraint, infrastructure as product. IREN monetizes power differently than APLD, GLXY, CIFR, and WULF. The adjacent category acknowledges this distinction.

Thesis Structure

Sections reorganized to reflect the core/adjacent distinction:

• Core Four: APLD (§8), GLXY (§9), CIFR (§10), WULF (§11). Colocation model.
• Adjacent Two: IREN (§12), NBIS (§13). GPU cloud model.

Total sections increased from 14 to 15. Part IV now covers six operators. Part V (Bear Cases, Rebuttals) renumbered accordingly.

Aggregate Figures Updated

• Total contracted revenue: $67B → $87B across six operators
• Combined market cap: $20-25B → $40-50B (including NBIS at ~$21B)
• Operator count references updated throughout (five → six)

Comparison Section Expanded

The pattern comparison in Section 11 (WULF) now includes both adjacent positions. Each dimension (contracted revenue, counterparty, expansion runway, execution status, business model, category error, hyperscaler validation) updated to reflect NBIS alongside IREN.

Sources Added

Seven sources for NBIS section:

• Nebius Microsoft $17.4B contract PR (Sep 2025)
• Nebius Microsoft contract SEC 6-K with $19.4B option terms
• Nebius Meta $3B contract PR (Nov 2025)
• Q3 2025 earnings release
• New Jersey 300MW data center announcement
• Finland 75MW expansion announcement
• Investor relations filings

Thesis Launched

Follow the Watts published with five operators: APLD, GLXY, IREN, CIFR, WULF. Core argument: power scarcity creates infrastructure moats. Contracted revenue from hyperscalers and neoclouds provides visibility. Market mispricing due to crypto categorization creates opportunity.

14 sections across 5 parts. Approximately $67B in contracted revenue across operators at time of publication.