Thesis Updated August 2026

Metrics

Fundamentals snapshot. Cash, debt, revenue, equity, and contracted capacity across all seven AI infrastructure operators.

$165B
Contracted Revenue
7.7 GW
Power Under Contract
765 MW
Deployed Today
$132B
Combined Market Cap
0.80x
Infrastructure
APLD
Applied Digital
$8.90B
Market Cap
Power Capacity
1,410 MW contracted 175 MW live 3.1 GW pipeline
Contracted Revenue $36B
EV/Contract 0.28x
Term 15 years
Counterparties
CoreWeave IG Hyperscaler IG Hyperscaler
Cash $3.97B
Debt $4.98B
Revenue $258.7M
Equity $1.72B
FY26 Q4 (May 31, 2026); Building 2 Phase 1 live Jun 30 (175 MW). Cash incl. $2.38B restricted. Revenue is FQ4.
GLXY
Galaxy Digital
$8.34B
Market Cap
Power Capacity
526 MW contracted 133 MW live 5.2 GW pipeline
Contracted Revenue $18B
EV/Contract 0.57x
Term 15 years
Counterparties
CoreWeave
Cash $2.5B
Debt $3.55B
Profit -$85M
Equity $2.72B
Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026); Phase I fully in service (133 MW), ~$80M/qtr from Q3 at 90%+ margins; Jul 28: $3.507B Phase II notes closed at 9.875% (post-quarter)
CIFR
Cipher Digital
$7.11B
Market Cap
Power Capacity
700 MW contracted First capacity live (MW n/d) 4.4 GW pipeline
Contracted Revenue $11.4B
EV/Contract 0.75x
Term 10-15 years
Counterparties
AWS Fluidstack IG Hyperscaler
Cash $4.56B
Debt $6.02B
Revenue $24.8M
Equity $562M
Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026) + Aug: first Black Pearl capacity delivered, rent commenced (MW not disclosed). Cash incl. $3.73B restricted project cash; $832M at parent.
WULF
TeraWulf
$8.42B
Market Cap
Power Capacity
839 MW contracted 102 MW live 2.1 GW pipeline
Contracted Revenue ~$27B
EV/Contract 0.39x
Term 10-20 years
Counterparties
Anthropic Fluidstack Core42 Google
Cash $3.0B
Debt $5.21B
Revenue $44.8M
Equity $148M
Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026) + Jul CB-3 delivery (102 MW live). Capacity on a critical-IT basis. Cash incl. restricted, excl. $250M first Abernathy payment received early Jul.
RIOT
Riot Platforms
$7.21B
Market Cap
Power Capacity
241 MW contracted 25 MW live 1.5 GW pipeline
Contracted Revenue ~$9.8B
EV/Contract 0.77x
Term 10-20 years
Counterparties
Frontier AI Lab AMD
Cash $549M
Debt $843M
Revenue $174.2M
Equity $2.19B
Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026) + Aug 10: 191 MW frontier AI lab lease (~$9.1B). Cash excl. 11,380 BTC ($666M at Jun 30). Contracted revenue is base term; ~$17.7B with all extensions.
Adjacent (GPU Cloud)
IREN
IREN Limited
$16.54B
Market Cap
Power Capacity
480 MW contracted 160 MW live 5.0 GW pipeline
Contracted Revenue $15.9B
EV/Contract 0.79x
Term ~4 years
Counterparties
Microsoft NVIDIA AI Developers
Cash $7.6B
Debt $3.7B
Revenue $144.8M
Equity $2.5B
Cash at Jun 30, 2026 ($1.7B restricted); debt incl. Jun $3.65B GPU financing. Aug 3: Mirantis acquisition closed. FY26 results due Aug 27, 2026.
NBIS
Nebius Group
$75.42B
Market Cap
Power Capacity
3.5 GW contracted 170 MW live 1.4 GW pipeline
Contracted Revenue ~$48B
EV/Contract 1.56x
Term 1-5 years
Counterparties
Microsoft Meta
Cash $9.10B
Debt $8.55B
Revenue $582.3M
Equity $10.34B
Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026). Cash incl. $1.06B restricted. Connected capacity not disclosed for Q2; live MW held at last reported figure. YE’26 contracted power target raised to 5 GW.

Cohort Comparison

The four measures the thesis compares operators on, in one place. Contracted revenue and contracted megawatts size the book. Live megawatts is the execution record. Pipeline is expansion potential. Counterparties is concentration. The two judgment measures, what each operator uniquely holds and what could break it, stay in the thesis where the argument for them lives.

Operator Contracted EV/Contract Contracted MW Live MW Pipeline Counterparties Model
APLD $36B 0.28x 1,410 MW 175 MW 3.1 GW CoreWeave, IG hyperscaler ×2 Colocation
WULF $27B 0.39x 839 MW 102 MW 2.1 GW Anthropic, Fluidstack (Google), Core42 Colocation
GLXY $18B 0.52x 526 MW 133 MW 5.2 GW CoreWeave Colocation
CIFR $11.4B 0.75x 700 MW first capacity, n/d 4.4 GW AWS, Fluidstack (Google), IG hyperscaler Colocation
RIOT $9.8B 0.77x 241 MW 25 MW 1.5 GW Frontier AI lab (unnamed), AMD Colocation
Core five $102.2B 0.45x 3,716 MW 435 MW 16.3 GW — Colocation
IREN $15.9B 0.79x 480 MW 160 MW 5.0 GW Microsoft, NVIDIA, AI developers GPU cloud
NBIS $48B 1.56x 3.5 GW 170 MW 1.4 GW Microsoft, Meta, four others GPU cloud
All seven $166.1B 0.80x 7.7 GW 765 MW 22.7 GW — —

The cohort ratio conceals a split. The five colocation operators trade at roughly 0.45x their contracted base, the widest discount in the recorded series. The two GPU cloud positions trade at or above theirs. The market is paying a premium for the model that owns depreciating hardware and a discount for the model that owns the room, which is the mispricing this thesis exists to point at, visible in one row.