Changelog

The Numbers That Matter

CIFR reported Q4 revenue of $60M (missed $84-88M estimates) with a $734M GAAP net loss, nearly all noncash: $450M convertible derivative, $90M miner write-down, $45M Odessa impairment. The headline numbers are irrelevant to the thesis. What matters is construction, financing, and pipeline advancement.

Construction On Schedule

Both Barber Lake (300 MW, Fluidstack/Google) and Black Pearl (300 MW, AWS) confirmed on schedule and on budget. Barber Lake has 95% of long-lead equipment secured with 400+ personnel on site. Black Pearl decommissioning miners this week with 85% of existing infrastructure repurposable for AWS.

NOI Projection

Management disclosed $669M average annualized net operating income from October 2026 through September 2036, rising to $754M by 2035. First concrete framework for modeling the revenue inflection from contracted capacity. Against a ~$5.9B market cap, this is the valuation anchor the market has been missing.

Financing Complete

Three bond offerings total $3.73B. Black Pearl notes priced at 6.125%, a full point below Barber Lake's 7.125%, with 6.5x oversubscription ($13B in orders across 200+ accounts). Both issues trading above par. CFO stated no additional equity needed for contracted developments. Unrestricted liquidity at $754M.

Strategic Pivot Complete

Company rebranded to Cipher Digital. Sold JV mining interests (Alborz, Bear, Chief) to Canaan in all-stock transaction. Bitcoin holdings reduced to 1,166 BTC with full exit planned by year-end. Only remaining mining: Odessa at 207 MW through July 2027.

Pipeline

Stingray (100 MW, Andrews TX) fully interconnection approved with preferred tenant in advanced lease negotiations. Ulysses (200 MW, Ohio, PJM) with multiple hyperscalers in data rooms. Reveille (70 MW, TX) being marketed to neo clouds. McLean, McKeska, Colchis studies approved with deposits funded.

Updated Pages

CIFR profile updated with February 2026 confirmation block covering construction, financing, NOI projections, and pipeline catalysts. Category error section reflects rebrand and mining exit. Timeline expanded with Q4 earnings, bond pricing, rebrand, and rent commencement events. Catalyst section updated to reflect rent commencement and Stingray lease as near-term triggers.

Source

• Cipher Digital Q4 2025 Business Update (Feb 24, 2026)

The Numbers

NBIS reported Q4 revenue of $227.7M (up 547% YoY) against ~$247.5M street consensus. Full year revenue came in at $529.8M, upper half of $500M-$550M guidance. The miss is a modeling problem, not an execution problem: analysts anchored above the high end of company guidance at $548M.

ARR Blowout

Year-end ARR hit $1.25B against $900M-$1.1B guidance, a 25% beat at the top. 2026 ARR guidance of $7B-$9B reaffirmed without hedging. Core AI business was 94% of Q4 revenue ($214.2M), with EBITDA margin progressing from 10% (Q2) to 19% (Q3) to 24% (Q4).

Capacity Expansion

Active power reached ~170 MW against 100 MW internal target. Contracted power now exceeds 2 GW (was 800 MW at Q3), with target raised to 3+ GW by year-end 2026. Total sites expanded from 2 (2024) to 7 (2025) to 16 announced, with 9 new sites across Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Minnesota, France, Israel, and the UK. Majority from owned data centers rather than colocation.

Hyperscaler Execution

Microsoft first tranche delivered November 2025 on schedule, remaining capacity on track. Both Meta tranches delivered on time, now fully in servicing stage. Deferred revenue reached $1.58B ($1.3B non-current, up from $0 at year-end 2024), representing prepayments awaiting recognition as capacity deploys.

Balance Sheet

Cash position at $3.7B (down from $4.9B at Q3 due to $2.1B Q4 capex). Zero debt. Group adjusted EBITDA turned positive at +$15M. Operating cash flow turned positive at +$834M. Full year capex totaled $4.1B.

Updated Pages

Metrics updated to Q4 2025 figures. Market caps updated across all seven operators. Timeline updated with 9-site expansion announcement.

Source

• Nebius Q4 2025 Financial Results (Feb 12, 2026)
• Nebius Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter (Feb 12, 2026)

The Miss

IREN reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $185M against $281M consensus. AI Cloud Services came in at $17M versus $31M expected. Bitcoin mining revenue fell from $233M to $167M as capacity transitions to GPU workloads. The company is in the gap between killing mining revenue and ramping AI Cloud.

Financing Closed

$3.6B GPU financing secured for Microsoft contract at sub-6% interest. Combined with Microsoft's $1.9B prepayment, 95% of GPU-related capex is now funded. Cash position reached $2.8B as of January 31, 2026. Over $9.2B in total funding secured year-to-date.

Oklahoma Campus

New 1.6 GW data center campus announced in Oklahoma. Grid studies complete, power scheduled to ramp from 2028. 2,000-acre site with low-latency network connectivity. Total secured power portfolio now exceeds 4.5 GW.

BC Contracts Progress

Prince George now has $400M ARR under contract. Additional $500M+ ARR in active negotiation for remaining British Columbia capacity. Horizon 1-4 construction for Microsoft progressing on schedule.

Updated Pages

Metrics updated to Q2 FY26 figures. Power portfolio references updated from 3 GW to 4.5+ GW across thesis sections.

Source

• IREN Q2 FY26 Results (Feb 5, 2026)

Phase I Delivery Imminent

GLXY Q4 2025 earnings confirm first Helios data hall delivery to CoreWeave by end of Q1 2026. Full 133 MW Phase I on track for H1 2026. Building dried in, commissioning underway, 1,000+ workers on site.

Phase II Already Started

Earthwork, concrete, and steelwork underway. Long-lead equipment purchase orders issued for 260 MW build. Management describes Helios as "first step" in multi-gigawatt, multi-tenant, multi-campus platform.

Pipeline Expands

1.8 GW in additional ERCOT applications beyond approved 1.6 GW. Evaluated 100+ campuses across U.S. for expansion beyond Helios. 830 MW being shopped to investment-grade tenants.

Updated Pages

Timeline includes earnings event. Metrics updated to FY 2025 figures. Sources include Q4 2025 earnings release.

Source

• Galaxy Digital Q4 2025 Earnings (Feb 3, 2026)

Financing the AWS Facility

CIFR announced $2 billion senior secured notes offering for Black Pearl, a 300 MW HPC data center in Wink, Texas. Facility fully pre-leased to Amazon Data Services under triple-net lease with 3% annual escalators.

Amazon Guarantee Structure

Amazon.com Inc. guarantees base rent and operating expenses. Amazon also covers construction cost overruns above $9.5M per IT megawatt. This structure makes the project extremely bankable. Hence the $2B raise against a single facility.

Capital Recycling

Cipher receives $232.5M reimbursement for prior equity contributions to the project. Money in, development progresses, financing closes, money comes back. Available for the next site.

Updated Pages

Timeline includes financing event. Thesis section updated with Black Pearl facility name and Amazon guarantee structure.

Source

• Cipher $2B Notes Offering (Feb 3, 2026)

Portfolio Doubles

WULF announced strategic acquisitions of two brownfield infrastructure sites, adding 1.5 GW to their portfolio. Total capacity reaches 2.8 GW across five sites with 643 MW contracted and 2.2 GW owned pipeline.

Kentucky: Hawesville

Former industrial site with 480 MW immediate power availability, on-site energized substation, direct transmission connection, and 250+ buildable acres. Strategic Midwest location within 300 miles of major metro areas.

Maryland: Morgantown Generating Station

Grid-connected power generation facility with 210 MW operational capacity, expandable to 1 GW. Located near Washington D.C. with 250 buildable acres. Establishes TeraWulf presence in PJM market. Closing subject to FERC approval.

Updated Pages

Timeline includes acquisition event. Thesis section reflects five-site portfolio and four-region geographic diversification.

Source

• TeraWulf KY/MD Acquisitions Press Release (Feb 2, 2026)

Full Coverage

The Timeline page now covers all seven operators and industry events from 2018 through 2028. RIOT, IREN, and NBIS join the four operators added January 30.

Key Additions

• RIOT: 2021 Whinstone acquisition ($651M, 750 MW), Corsicana buildout (1 GW approved), AI/HPC evaluation of 600 MW remaining capacity
• IREN: 2018 founding, Nasdaq IPO, Childress County acquisition, $9.7B Microsoft GPU cloud contract, Sweetwater Hub buildout to 2 GW
• NBIS: Yandex origins through Russia sanctions, Nebius rebrand, $700M NVIDIA raise, $17.4B Microsoft contract, $3B Meta deal

Also Updated

Industry events now included: Bitcoin halvings, China mining ban, Ethereum Merge, ChatGPT and GPT-4 launches, spot Bitcoin ETF approval, NVIDIA Blackwell announcement, CoreWeave emergence, and hyperscaler spending commitments. Site dates updated to February 2026.

New Coverage

The Timeline page now includes comprehensive coverage of GLXY, CIFR, and WULF alongside APLD. Timeline extends back to 2018 with Galaxy Digital's founding and traces each company through their public listings, infrastructure buildouts, and hyperscaler contracts.

Key Additions

• GLXY: 2018 founding, TSX listing, 2022 Helios acquisition, 2025 CoreWeave $15B contract, Nasdaq listing
• CIFR: 2021 SPAC merger, Texas operations, 2024 Barber Lake acquisition, 2025 Fluidstack and AWS deals totaling $9.3B
• WULF: 2021 founding and listing, Lake Mariner buildout, 2025 Fluidstack deals with Google backing totaling $16B+

Coming

Timeline coverage for RIOT, IREN, and NBIS in progress.

New Page

Added Timeline page showing corporate history and industry events in chronological order. The preview release covers APLD with other operators to follow.

Purpose

The thesis is dense. Some prefer reading it linearly. Others want to see how the pieces fit together chronologically. When did APLD pivot to HPC. Where does the CoreWeave contract fit in the broader narrative. The timeline serves the second group.

Coming

Full coverage of all seven operators and industry events. Each company requires cross-referencing press releases and news coverage to get dates and details right.

Development

NVIDIA invested an additional $2 billion in CoreWeave at $87.20 per share, becoming the company's second-largest shareholder. This follows their existing $3.3 billion stake and the $6.3 billion capacity backstop agreement through 2032 disclosed in September. Total NVIDIA exposure to CoreWeave now exceeds $11 billion.

Thesis Implications

CoreWeave is the primary counterparty for APLD ($11 billion in contracts) and GLXY ($15 billion+ projected). Counterparty risk was identified as a key bear case in Section 15. This investment materially changes that calculus. The relevant question shifts from "can CoreWeave pay?" to "can NVIDIA afford for CoreWeave to fail?" Jensen Huang's statement framed CoreWeave as "the foundation of the AI industrial revolution." That's dependency language, not investment language.

Source

• NVIDIA/CoreWeave Press Release (Jan 26, 2026)

New Page

Added Metrics page providing a fundamentals snapshot across all seven operators. Tracks cash, debt, revenue, contracted value, and enterprise value for quick comparative analysis.

EV/Contract Ratio

The page introduces EV/Contract as a key comparative metric. This ratio divides enterprise value by total contracted revenue to show how much the market is paying per dollar of committed future cash flows. A lower ratio suggests the market is discounting the contracts more heavily. A higher ratio suggests the market is pricing in execution confidence or expansion optionality. Comparing EV/Contract across operators reveals relative valuation disparities even when absolute contract sizes differ substantially.

Metrics Tracked

• Cash and debt positions
• Quarterly revenue (most recent reported)
• Contracted revenue totals
• Enterprise value and EV/Contract ratios
• Capacity metrics (live, contracted, pipeline)

Site Updates

• Resource cards added to landing page for Pipeline and Metrics
• Metrics accessible via direct link or from operators section

Development

Applied Digital broke ground on Delta Forge 1, a 430 MW AI Factory campus in a strategic southern U.S. market. The campus is designed to support up to 300 MW of critical IT load across two 150-MW facilities spanning more than 500 acres. Initial operations expected mid-2027, with ability to scale considerably in 2028 and beyond.

Thesis Implications

• APLD expansion pipeline now approaches 2 GW (600 MW contracted at Polaris Forge, 800 MW option, 430 MW Delta Forge 1)
• Company in discussions with another prospective investment-grade hyperscaler for Delta Forge 1, which would be a third major customer
• Demonstrates replicable AI Factory blueprint refined through Polaris Forge campuses
• Geographic diversification beyond North Dakota

Source

• APLD Delta Forge 1 Groundbreaking Press Release (Jan 22, 2026)

New Page

Added Pipeline page tracking Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI infrastructure. These companies have power secured and infrastructure under development, but lack signed hyperscaler contracts. Not thesis positions until they close deals, but worth monitoring as the AI infrastructure buildout continues. A signed contract moves them to the main thesis.

Current Pipeline

• BITF (Bitfarms): 1.3 GW power pipeline, $750M liquidity. Panther Creek PA flagship site (350 MW) with Macquarie financing, T5 Data Centers as construction partner. Furthest along.
• HIVE (HIVE Digital): 540 MW total footprint across Sweden, Iceland, and Canada. Already generating GPU cloud revenue. Paraguay expansion underway.
• DGXX (Digi Power X): 197 MW available power in Texas ERCOT. Early stage, smallest of the three.

Site Updates

• Pipeline link added to landing page operators section
• Page accessible via direct link or from main thesis navigation

Position Initiated

RIOT enters the thesis following the announcement of a 10-year Data Center Lease with AMD and fee simple acquisition of the Rockdale site. RIOT becomes the fifth core infrastructure operator alongside APLD, GLXY, CIFR, and WULF.

Contract Details

• AMD Data Center Lease: 25 MW initial deployment at Rockdale, TX
• 10-year base term: ~$311 million contracted revenue
• Three 5-year extension options: potential total ~$1 billion
• AMD expansion options: +75 MW plus 100 MW ROFR (200 MW total potential)
• Delivery phases: January 2026 (Phase 1), May 2026 (Phase 2)
• Initial retrofit capex: $89.8 million ($3.6M per MW critical IT load)

Fee Simple Acquisition

• Acquired 200 acres at Rockdale for $96 million (previously ground lease)
• Funded by sale of 1,080 BTC from balance sheet
• Rockdale site: 700 MW grid interconnection, dedicated water, fiber
• Ownership unlocks full data center development flexibility

Compensation Restructuring

• 2026 AIP amended to tie bonuses to data center execution
• New metrics: Data Center Revenue (15%), Data Center NOI (15%)
• "Bitcoin Yield" metric eliminated
• Incentives now fully aligned with AI infrastructure pivot

Thesis Significance

AMD as counterparty expands thesis beyond hyperscalers to chipmakers building inference capacity. RIOT's 1.7 GW Texas portfolio (Rockdale 700 MW + Corsicana 1 GW) positions them similarly to other core operators. Corsicana has reported hyperscaler interest (Microsoft, Amazon) but no signed contracts yet. Smallest contracted base in thesis currently, but first contract often precedes rapid accumulation.

Structure Changes

• Core operators: 4 → 5 (added RIOT as §12)
• Total operators: 6 → 7
• Total sections: 15 → 16
• IREN renumbered to §13, NBIS to §14
• Bear Cases renumbered to §15, Rebuttals to §16

Aggregate Figures Updated

• Core contracted revenue: $57B → $58B
• Total contracted revenue: $87B → $88B
• Combined market cap: $70-75B → $80-85B

Sources

• RIOT AMD Lease & Rockdale Acquisition Press Release (Jan 16, 2026)
• RIOT CFO Transition & Compensation Changes (Jan 2, 2026)
• RIOT SEC Filings

Capacity Update

GLXY announced ERCOT approval of an additional 830 MW at the Helios data center campus in West Texas. This doubles total ERCOT-approved, utility-contracted capacity to over 1.6 GW.

Key Details

• Completed Large Load Interconnection Study (LLIS) for 830 MW additional capacity
• Executed service agreement with AEP Texas Inc. for the new capacity
• Transmission interconnection provider: Wind Energy Transmission Texas (WETT)
• Total approved capacity now 1.6 GW (was 800 MW)
• CoreWeave contracted for original 800 MW; new 830 MW available for additional customers
• Ultimate buildout potential remains 3.5 GW

Thesis Implications

This approval validates the temporal moat thesis. Galaxy acquired Helios in December 2022 for $65M. Three years later, they've doubled their approved capacity through ERCOT's queue, a process new entrants would need 5+ years to replicate. The 830 MW represents expansion runway for additional hyperscaler relationships beyond CoreWeave.

Source

Galaxy Digital Press Release (Jan 15, 2026)

New Content

Added dedicated APLD Revenue Analysis page with detailed breakdown of Q2 FY26 economics. The analysis reverse-engineers the per-MW run rate from partial-quarter data using actual energization dates (Phase I: Oct 27, Phase II: Nov 24).

Key Findings

• Q2 operated at 23% of theoretical capacity (2,100 MW-days vs 9,100 possible)
• $12M lease revenue on 23% utilization implies ~$52M full quarter run rate
• Implied rate of $2.08M per MW per year exceeds contract math ($1.67-1.83M)
• Stabilized 600 MW implies ~$1.25B annual HPC lease revenue
• At 85% NOI margin, implies ~$1.06B HPC NOI vs $10-11B enterprise value (~10x multiple)

Site Updates

Link added to APLD section (§8) pointing to the new analysis. Page will be updated quarterly as new data becomes available.

Results

APLD reported Q2 FY26 results (quarter ended November 30, 2025). Revenue of $126.6 million, up 250% year over year. First HPC lease revenue recognized: $12 million from the 100 MW facility at Polaris Forge 1. Adjusted EBITDA of $20.2 million. Adjusted net income at breakeven.

Execution Milestones

• 100 MW facility (ELN-02) delivered on schedule, fully energized
• 150 MW facility (ELN-03) under construction, expected calendar 2026
• Polaris Forge 2 (200 MW) broke ground, initial capacity expected 2026, full capacity early 2027
• Property and equipment on balance sheet: $2.0 billion, up from $1.24 billion six months prior

Balance Sheet

• Cash and restricted cash: $2.3 billion
• Total debt: $2.6 billion
• $2.35 billion senior secured notes closed (9.25%, due 2030)
• Macquarie preferred equity: $900 million drawn, $4.1 billion remaining capacity
• $100 million development loan facility added for new site pre-lease work

Forward Guidance

Management raised guidance, now expecting to exceed $1 billion NOI within five years. Company disclosed advanced discussions with a third investment-grade hyperscaler across multiple regions including additional Dakota sites and southern U.S. markets.

Position Initiated

NBIS (Nebius Group) added to the thesis as an adjacent position. Nebius operates the same GPU cloud model as IREN: own the hardware, sell compute. Two hyperscaler contracts totaling $20.4B:

• Microsoft: $17.4B over 5 years (option to $19.4B), Vineland NJ data center
• Meta: $3B over 5 years, deployed within 3 months of signing

Already generating revenue at scale, unlike most operators in the thesis. Power portfolio targeting 2.5 GW contracted by end of 2026.

Position Reframed

IREN moved from core thesis to adjacent position. The $9.7B Microsoft contract remains compelling. The 3 GW power portfolio is real. But IREN sells compute, not infrastructure. Buildings don't depreciate on NVIDIA's release cycle. GPUs do.

This isn't a downgrade. It's a categorization correction. The core thesis is "Follow the Watts": power as constraint, infrastructure as product. IREN monetizes power differently than APLD, GLXY, CIFR, and WULF. The adjacent category acknowledges this distinction.

Thesis Structure

Sections reorganized to reflect the core/adjacent distinction:

• Core Four: APLD (§8), GLXY (§9), CIFR (§10), WULF (§11). Colocation model.
• Adjacent Two: IREN (§12), NBIS (§13). GPU cloud model.

Total sections increased from 14 to 15. Part IV now covers six operators. Part V (Bear Cases, Rebuttals) renumbered accordingly.

Aggregate Figures Updated

• Total contracted revenue: $67B → $87B across six operators
• Combined market cap: $20-25B → $40-50B (including NBIS at ~$21B)
• Operator count references updated throughout (five → six)

Comparison Section Expanded

The pattern comparison in Section 11 (WULF) now includes both adjacent positions. Each dimension (contracted revenue, counterparty, expansion runway, execution status, business model, category error, hyperscaler validation) updated to reflect NBIS alongside IREN.

Sources Added

Seven sources for NBIS section:

• Nebius Microsoft $17.4B contract PR (Sep 2025)
• Nebius Microsoft contract SEC 6-K with $19.4B option terms
• Nebius Meta $3B contract PR (Nov 2025)
• Q3 2025 earnings release
• New Jersey 300MW data center announcement
• Finland 75MW expansion announcement
• Investor relations filings

Thesis Launched

Follow the Watts published with five operators: APLD, GLXY, IREN, CIFR, WULF. Core argument: power scarcity creates infrastructure moats. Contracted revenue from hyperscalers and neoclouds provides visibility. Market mispricing due to crypto categorization creates opportunity.

14 sections across 5 parts. Approximately $67B in contracted revenue across operators at time of publication.