Changelog

The Deal

APLD signed a 15-year take-or-pay lease at Delta Forge 2, a fifth campus in a new southern state: 210 MW of critical IT load, approximately $5.2 billion in base-term contracted revenue, up to $12.7 billion across a 30-year term with renewals. The counterparty is the same U.S. high-investment-grade hyperscaler that signed Delta Forge 1 and Polaris Forge 3, making Delta Forge 2 its third Applied Digital campus and 810 MW of commitments from a single customer. Initial operations anticipated early 2028.

The Aggregate

The portfolio now spans five campuses and 1,400 MW of contracted critical IT against roughly 2.15 GW of grid-connected utility power, approximately $36 billion in base-term contracted revenue (about $86 billion with renewals), with roughly 70% backed by investment-grade hyperscalers. Financed alongside an upsized $550 million revolving credit facility and $1.59 billion of senior secured notes for a fourth building at Polaris Forge 1.

What Changed

APLD profile and cohort aggregates refreshed to five campuses, 1,400 MW, $36B contracted. TLDR refreshed from $75B core / $57B adjacent to $80B core / $57B adjacent. Metrics card and timeline updated.

Sources

• APLD Delta Forge 2 210 MW Lease at Fifth Campus (Jun 8, 2026)
• APLD Secures Up To $550M Revolving Credit Facility (Jun 8, 2026)
• APLD Prices $1.59B Senior Secured Notes for Polaris Forge 1 Building 4 (Jun 9, 2026)

The Facility

CIFR priced $810 million of 6.000% senior secured notes due 2031 at 99.750% through a wholly-owned subsidiary, Stingray Compute LLC. Proceeds fund the remaining build cost of the 100 MW Stingray facility in Texas, reimburse roughly $61.5 million of prior equity contributions, and fund debt service reserves. The notes are secured by the Stingray facility assets. No tenant or contracted-revenue figure was disclosed; the site was already in advanced lease negotiations with a preferred tenant, and capital markets are financing it ahead of equity-analyst recognition.

What Changed

CIFR profile Stingray reference updated from lease negotiation to dedicated project financing. Contracted base held at $11.4B (no lease disclosed). Timeline updated.

Source

• Cipher Digital / Stingray Compute LLC $810M Senior Secured Notes (Jun 8, 2026)

The Expansion

NBIS committed approximately £1.7 billion to three new UK deployments of NVIDIA full-stack AI factory infrastructure, reaching 65 MW when fully ramped in 2027. The build deepens the domestic footprint beyond the initial Longcross Park site and aligns with the UK AI Opportunities Action Plan. A regional footprint expansion, not a change to the $44 billion Microsoft and Meta contracted base.

What Changed

NBIS profile capacity-buildout paragraph extended with the UK expansion. Timeline updated.

Source

• Nebius UK Expansion: ~£1.7B, 65 MW by 2027 (Jun 8, 2026)

The Site

WULF acquired the Muskie campus in Eastern Kentucky, a second Kentucky site targeting 1 GW staged through 2030, with Phase 1 of 500 MW by H2 2028. Utility substation work is underway to support the load; purchase price not disclosed.

What Changed

WULF profile updated to a second Kentucky campus and 3.8 GW across six sites. Metrics and timeline updated.

Source

• TeraWulf Acquires 1 GW Eastern Kentucky HPC Campus (May 26, 2026)

The Report

Record revenue $81.6B (+85% YoY), Data Center $75.2B (+92% YoY). Q2 guide $91B, with zero China Data Center revenue assumed in the outlook. $80B buyback authorized. Huang on the call: every major hyperscaler partnering to deploy Vera Rubin.

Thesis Implication

NVIDIA's $91B Q2 guide is the cleanest single data point on demand sustainability through Q2 2026. The chip manufacturer's outlook extends the validation that began at the April 29 hyperscaler print night to a different layer of the stack. Positive across the NVIDIA-customer stack (CRWV, NBIS, IREN).

What Changed

Rebuttals section "On the AI capex slowdown narrative" updated to extend through the May reporting cycle. Timeline adds May 20 event.

Source

• NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings (May 20, 2026)

The Deal

APLD signed a 15-year take-or-pay lease at Polaris Forge 3, a fourth campus in a northern state: 300 MW of critical IT, $7.5 billion base-term contracted revenue. The counterparty is the same investment-grade hyperscaler that signed Delta Forge 1 in April, doubling that customer's APLD footprint to 600 MW.

The Aggregate

Applied Digital becomes the first AI infrastructure operator in the thesis to cross 1 GW of contracted critical IT load. Total contracted lease revenue reaches $31 billion across the portfolio (four campuses, three counterparties). The repeat-customer signal is unambiguous: the same hyperscaler returned for a second 300 MW commitment four weeks after signing Delta Forge 1. The AI Factory blueprint scales and the customer chooses to scale with it.

What Changed

APLD profile updated to four campuses, 1,200 MW, $31B. Aggregates refreshed. TLDR refreshed from $67B core / $54B adjacent to $75B core / $57B adjacent. Metrics and timeline updated.

Source

• APLD Polaris Forge 3 Lease, Crosses 1 GW Contracted (May 20, 2026)

The Agreement

NBIS signed a master fuel-cell agreement with Bloom Energy worth up to $2.6 billion, covering roughly 250 MW of guaranteed capacity. Behind-the-meter generation accelerates deployment beyond what grid interconnection alone permits, the same logic behind APLD's Base Electron stake. Among adjacent operators, Nebius is first to formalize a fuel-cell program at this scale.

What Changed

NBIS operator profile updated with Bloom Energy paragraph and unique-advantage bullet extension. Sources and timeline updated.

Source

• Nebius / Bloom Energy Master Fuel-Cell Agreement (May 20, 2026)

The License

GLXY received a BitLicense and Money Transmission License from New York's Department of Financial Services for GalaxyOne Prime NY, extending its regulated crypto franchise. Corporate development; it does not change the infrastructure thesis.

What Changed

GLXY operator profile updated with a brief BitLicense reference in the remaining-crypto-businesses paragraph. Sources and timeline updated.

Source

• Galaxy Receives BitLicense from NYDFS (May 18, 2026)

The Order

The Energy Secretary issued an emergency order authorizing PJM to call on backup generation at data centers and large loads as a last resort before firm load shed, triggered by Mid-Atlantic heat and more than 40 GW of planned outages. The first federal action that treats data centers as a grid resource rather than purely as demand.

Thesis Implication

The order cuts both ways. Bear case: grid stress is real, infrastructure deployment is bumping against physical limits. Rebuttal: campuses with backup generation now treated as peaking capacity that the grid operator can call on. APLD's Base Electron equity and Nebius's Bloom Energy fuel-cell agreement are correctly priced moves under this regime. Operators that secured power early and added behind-the-meter generation enter the constraint as solutions, not as victims of it.

What Changed

Rebuttals section added new "On grid stress as a thesis risk" subsection. Timeline adds May 18 event.

Source

• DOE Press: Emergency Order 202-26-23 (May 18, 2026)

The Facility

CoreWeave closed its first publicly syndicated HPC-backed delayed-draw term loan: $3.1 billion, meaningfully oversubscribed, lifting YTD capital raised past $20 billion. The filing states proceeds support deployment for "two large, non-investment-grade customers."

Thesis Implication

The non-IG customer language is the most consequential public disclosure of counterparty mix CoreWeave has made. Investment-grade hyperscalers (Microsoft, OpenAI under AWS guarantee, Meta) now sit alongside non-IG counterparties at scale. Material for the counterparty concentration analysis on APLD and GLXY, both of which have CoreWeave as primary counterparty.

What Changed

Rebuttals "What I might be wrong about" CoreWeave bullet updated to reference the May 18 disclosure. Sources updated.

Source

• CoreWeave $3.1B DDTL 5.0 Facility (May 18, 2026)

Results

NBIS reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue $399 million (+684% YoY); AI cloud $390 million (+841% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA $130 million at 32% margin. AI segment delivered 45% adjusted EBITDA margin. ARR run rate reached $1.9 billion.

Guidance Raised

2026 guidance lifted across the board: revenue $3.0-3.4 billion, year-end ARR $7-9 billion, EBITDA margin near 40%. 2026 capex guide jumped from $7 billion to $20-25 billion on 2027 demand pre-commitments. Contracted power exceeded 3.5 GW, more than 75% owned, and a new Pennsylvania 1.2 GW owned site was announced.

Meta Structure Clarified

The $27 billion Meta agreement clarified as $12 billion firm dedicated compute plus $15 billion option exercisable at Nebius discretion based on capacity availability. The headline figure stands; the firm-only number is $12 billion.

What Changed

NBIS profile updated with Q1 results, the Meta structure clarification, the Pennsylvania site, and raised guidance. Metrics and timeline updated.

Source

• Nebius Q1 2026 Results 6-K (May 13, 2026)

Results

WULF reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue $34.0 million split between $21.0 million in HPC lease revenue and $13.0 million in digital asset revenue. The first quarter in which HPC lease revenue exceeded digital asset revenue. Net loss $427.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA negative $4.1 million, close to breakeven on the operating line. Cash and restricted cash approximately $3.1 billion.

Operational Milestones

Lake Mariner energized 60 MW for Core42 in Q1, with lease revenue commencing. CB-3 near completion; CB-4 and CB-5 on track for 2026. Hawesville (Kentucky) confirmed at 480 MW grid-connected.

What Changed

WULF profile updated with Q1 results, Core42 as second active counterparty, and Lake Mariner 60 MW live. Category Errors notes HPC revenue overtaking digital assets for the first time. Metrics and timeline updated.

Source

• TeraWulf Q1 2026 Results (May 8, 2026)

The NVIDIA Contract

IREN signed a five-year, $3.4 billion managed GPU cloud agreement with NVIDIA, deploying air-cooled Blackwell at Childress within existing capacity. The partnership designates Sweetwater (Texas) as flagship NVIDIA DSX deployment across up to 5 GW of pipeline, and NVIDIA takes a five-year warrant implying up to $2.1 billion of equity, subject to approval. Chip-manufacturer equity now spans both adjacent operators.

Q3 FY26 Results

Revenue $144.8 million, down sequentially as Bitcoin mining hardware came offline. Net loss $247.8 million on a $140.4 million decommissioning impairment; adjusted EBITDA $59.5 million. Sweetwater 1 substation energized on schedule; CY26 ARR target raised to $3.7 billion.

Acquisitions

Two acquisitions: Nostrum, a 490 MW grid-connected platform in Spain that extends the portfolio onto a second continent; and Mirantis, orchestration software the NVIDIA contract requires.

What Changed

IREN profile refreshed from single- to two-counterparty positioning ($9.7B to $13.1B contracted, Microsoft plus NVIDIA, 5 GW pipeline). Metrics and timeline updated.

Sources

• IREN Business Update and Q3 FY26 Results (May 7, 2026)
• NVIDIA-IREN 5 GW Strategic Partnership (May 7, 2026)

Results

Revenue $2.078 billion (+112% YoY). Backlog reached $99.4 billion, up from $55 billion at IPO, with more than $40 billion of new commitments in a single quarter and ten customers committed at $1 billion or more. Contracted power exceeded 3.5 GW. 2026 revenue guide reaffirmed at $12-13 billion; net loss widened to $740 million.

Thesis Implication

CoreWeave is the demand layer underneath APLD and GLXY contracted revenue. A backlog approaching $100 billion confirms the cascading-demand mechanism the thesis depends on. The next material disclosure is the May 18 DDTL 5.0 filing, which named "two large non-investment-grade customers" explicitly.

What Changed

Section 4 (The Flywheel) updated with the $99 billion Q1 backlog and $40 billion of new commitments. Rebuttals reference CoreWeave Q1.

Source

• CoreWeave Q1 2026 Results (May 7, 2026)

The Deal

Anthropic signed a three-year, $45 billion compute contract reportedly using the full capacity of SpaceX/xAI's Colossus 1, the largest single AI compute contract on record. It sits on top of Anthropic's up-to-5 GW AWS Trainium commitment and reported Google commitment.

Thesis Implication

Breaks the assumption that Anthropic's compute mix was a two-supplier story. Confirms demand sustainability at the model developer layer. The pattern from the April 29 hyperscaler print night now extends to the model layer: capacity constrains, demand does not.

What Changed

Rebuttals "On the AI capex slowdown narrative" extension references the Anthropic-SpaceX agreement. Timeline adds May 6 event.

Source

• Anthropic-SpaceX/Colossus $45B Compute Deal (May 6, 2026)

The MOU

RIOT signed a non-binding MOU with Terrestrial Energy to develop up to 4 GW of nuclear-paired data center capacity at its Texas and Kentucky candidate sites, with reactor deployment targeted for the early 2030s. No dollar terms; the MOU is contingent on Terrestrial Energy's commercialization timeline.

Thesis Implication

The signal matters more than the contract terms. Riot is positioning Corsicana's gigawatt of available capacity as nuclear-ready, a configuration distinct from any other operator in the thesis. If the timeline holds, the 1.7 GW Texas portfolio could extend into a multi-gigawatt nuclear-backed footprint by the decade's end.

What Changed

RIOT profile and the Section 12 rollup updated with the nuclear optionality. Sources and timeline updated.

Source

• Riot / Terrestrial Energy Collaboration MOU (May 6, 2026)

The Separation

APLD separated its cloud services business into a separately traded company, ChronoScale Corporation (Nasdaq: CHRN), retaining roughly 97% ownership. The cloud segment that produced the $59.7 million Q3 write-down now sits on a separate ticker, and Applied Digital operates as a pure-play data center and HPC hosting platform going forward.

Related Execution: Bridge Close

The day prior, Applied Digital closed the $300 million Goldman-led senior secured bridge facility foreshadowed in the April 23 Delta Forge 1 announcement, funding continued development of Building 3 at Polaris Forge 1. The structure mirrors the earlier campuses: deploy against the contract, refinance into long-term project debt.

What Changed

APLD profile updated to the pure-play structure post-CHRN; Category Errors notes the reclassification. Timeline updated.

Sources

• Applied Digital Completes Separation of Cloud Business; ChronoScale Begins Trading (May 5, 2026)
• APLD $300M Goldman Bridge Facility Closes (May 4, 2026)

The Disclosure

CIFR reported Q1 2026. Contracted revenue rose to $11.4 billion across three IG hyperscale leases. Average annualized NOI of $787 million is expected from October 2026 through September 2036, above the prior $669 million projection. Operating and contracted capacity reached 907 MW, with a 3.3 GW HPC-prioritized pipeline.

Construction and Liquidity

Barber Lake (300 MW Fluidstack/Google) and Black Pearl (AWS) are confirmed on schedule and on budget, with no additional equity anticipated; Barber Lake targets rent commencement October 2026. Q1 cash $715 million plus an undrawn $200 million revolver. Q1 revenue $34.8 million reflects the planned mining wind-down at Black Pearl ahead of AWS delivery. Stock +23.5% post-print.

What Changed

CIFR profile updated with the Q1 disclosure ($11.4B contracted, 907 MW, $787M average NOI). Metrics and cohort aggregate refreshed.

Sources

• Cipher Digital Q1 2026 Business Update (May 5, 2026)
• Cipher Digital Q1 2026 Investor Presentation (May 5, 2026)

The Acquisition

NBIS agreed to acquire Eigen AI for $643 million, folding its inference and model-optimization technology into the Nebius Token Factory platform. The move adds vertical integration of inference optimization that pure GPU cloud operators cannot easily replicate, capturing margin above the raw infrastructure layer.

What Changed

NBIS operator profile updated with platform layer expansion paragraph and unique-advantage bullet extension. Eigen AI acquisition source added.

Source

• Nebius Agrees to Acquire Eigen AI (May 1, 2026)

Execution Milestone

RIOT reported Q1 2026. The first 5 MW commenced operations at Rockdale in January 2026 on schedule, and AMD exercised its 25 MW expansion option, bringing contracted critical IT to 50 MW. Combined contract value approximately $636 million, with extension and expansion options to over $1.6 billion.

Reclassification Begins

CFO Jason Chung's framing was direct: for the first time, the top line includes contracted lease revenue from an investment-grade tenant. The reclassification the thesis predicted has begun. Q1 revenue $167 million; GAAP net loss $500 million including a $326.7 million non-cash BTC mark. Stock +12.2% post-print.

Corsicana Redesign

Corsicana redesigned to 168 MW per building, a 50% capacity increase for the same capital spend. Vertical integration via ESS Metron secures power components constraining competitors.

What Changed

RIOT profile updated with the AMD 50 MW commitment, first delivery, and Corsicana redesign; Category Errors cites the CFO's reclassification. Metrics, cohort rollup, and timeline updated.

Source

• Riot Platforms Q1 2026 Financial Results (Apr 30, 2026)

The Reports

Microsoft Azure grew 40% in Q3 FY26, beating its guide. Google Cloud accelerated to 63% with backlog nearly doubling to over $460 billion. AWS hit 28%, its fastest in 15 quarters, and disclosed a new ~2 GW OpenAI Trainium commitment ramping in 2027 atop Anthropic's reaffirmed up-to-5 GW. Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125-145 billion. Aggregate 2026 hyperscaler capex now sits near $600 billion.

The Mechanism

The four hyperscalers each confirmed capacity is the limiter on cloud growth, not demand. The setup the thesis depends on, hyperscaler capex flowing into contracted infrastructure obligations at operators with secured power, was confirmed at the source. The AI capex slowdown framing that built up through the quarter was materially refuted across the four largest spenders.

What Changed

Rebuttals added an "On the AI capex slowdown narrative" subsection. Timeline updated.

Sources

• Microsoft FY26 Q3 Press Release (Apr 29, 2026)
• Alphabet Q1 2026 Earnings Release (Apr 29, 2026)
• Amazon Q1 2026 Earnings Release (Apr 29, 2026)
• Meta Q1 2026 Earnings Release (Apr 29, 2026)

Results

GLXY reported Q1 2026: GAAP net loss of $216 million ($0.49/share), driven by mark-to-market declines as total crypto market cap fell roughly 20%. Firm-wide adjusted EBITDA negative $188 million, narrowed about a third sequentially on lower expenses. Cash and stablecoins $2.6 billion; total equity $2.78 billion.

The Helios Milestone

Subsequent to quarter end, Galaxy delivered the first data hall to CoreWeave under the Phase I lease, with revenue recognition beginning April 2026. Phase I remains on schedule for 133 MW in Q2 2026; the 526 MW commitment carries anticipated annual revenue above $1 billion at roughly 90% lease-level margins. Phase II (260 MW) deliveries are expected in H1 2027. The category-error position begins resolving: the infrastructure is no longer pre-revenue.

Segment Performance

Digital Assets gross profit held roughly flat despite the market decline; Asset Management ran $5.0 billion AUM with positive net inflows. The Data Centers segment remained pre-Helios, with material ramp expected from Q2 2026.

Capital Actions

Galaxy repurchased 3.2 million Class A shares for $65 million and completed its delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange, consolidating on Nasdaq. Post-quarter, BlackRock selected Galaxy as approved validator for its iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF.

What Changed

GLXY operator profile updated with Q1 results and the first data hall delivery. Execution status moves from pre-delivery to revenue recognition begun. Timeline and metrics updated accordingly.

Sources

• Galaxy Q1 2026 Financial Results IR Page (Apr 28, 2026)
• Galaxy Q1 2026 Financial Results Press Release (Apr 28, 2026)

The Deal

APLD signed a 15-year lease at Delta Forge 1 with a U.S.-based high investment-grade hyperscaler: 300 MW of critical IT, approximately $7.5 billion in contracted revenue, in a strategic southern U.S. market. Initial operations anticipated mid-2027. The tenant becomes Applied Digital's second U.S. investment-grade hyperscaler and third counterparty across three campuses.

The Aggregate

Total contracted lease revenue rises from approximately $16 billion to over $23 billion. More than 50% of contracted revenue is now backed by investment-grade counterparties. The Delta Forge 1 design follows the AI Factory blueprint refined at Polaris Forge 1 and 2, where 100 MW is operational and Q3 FY26 produced $71 million in HPC Hosting revenue at the contract baseline rate. The third hyperscaler converts the customer concentration narrative: CoreWeave is no longer the sole counterparty driving the contracted base.

Financing

Applied Digital expects an up to $300 million senior secured bridge facility for Building 3 at Polaris Forge 1, plus an up to $300 million revolving credit facility, both on customary terms. The bridge mirrors Polaris Forge 1 and 2: deploy against the contract, refinance into long-term project debt once construction is in hand.

What Changed

APLD operator profile updated with Delta Forge 1 moving from in-discussions to contracted, and a third hyperscaler counterparty added. Thesis aggregate contracted revenue rises from approximately $112 billion to $119 billion. Timeline and metrics updated accordingly.

Sources

• Applied Digital: New U.S. Investment-Grade Hyperscaler Tenant at Delta Forge 1 (Apr 23, 2026)

Results

APLD reported Q3 FY26. Revenue of $126.6 million, up 139% YoY, beating consensus by 68%. HPC Hosting generated $71.0 million ($44.1 million base rent) at $17.6 million segment operating profit. Adjusted EBITDA $44.1 million; adjusted net income $33.2 million ($0.09/share) against a consensus loss.

The Mechanism Validated

Q3 delivered $44.1 million in base rent on a full quarter at 100 MW, an annualized $1.76 million per MW, inside the contract range of $1.67 to $1.83 million. The per-MW rate normalized to the contract baseline, and total HPC revenue of $71 million cleared estimates on fit-out and pass-through components a partial quarter could not isolate.

Counterparty Credit and Power Strategy

CoreWeave delivered an unconditional springing parent guarantee and a $50 million letter of credit, and the CoreWeave SPV was upgraded to A3 from BB. Applied Digital separately took 10% equity in Base Electron, an IPP developing up to 1.2 GW of gas generation in the Dakotas, in exchange for limited credit support. Behind-the-meter power reduces dependence on utility interconnection for capacity beyond Polaris Forge.

Balance Sheet

Cash of $2.1 billion against $2.7 billion in debt; equity of $1.58 billion, up from $497.7 million a year earlier. The $2.15 billion of 6.75% Polaris Forge 2 notes priced subsequent to quarter close, taking pro-forma debt to roughly $4.85 billion, with no significant maturities within two years.

What Changed

APLD operator profile updated with Q3 execution data replacing Q2 references. Base Electron thread added to power moat discussion. Timeline adds April 8 earnings event.

Sources

• APLD Q3 FY26 Earnings Release (Apr 8, 2026)
• APLD Q3 FY26 8-K (Apr 8, 2026)

Financing

NBIS proposed convertible senior notes on March 17, a day after the Meta $27 billion announcement; demand drove an upsizing to $4.34 billion at close, taking Nebius from zero debt. Combined with the NVIDIA $2 billion equity and Meta prepayments, management states 2026 capex of $16 to $20 billion is fully funded.

Expansion

Two capacity milestones in March: Independence, Missouri approved incentives for Nebius's largest US campus, up to 1.2 GW; and a $10 billion, 310 MW site in Lappeenranta, Finland, its largest outside the US, with first capacity in 2027.

What Changed

NBIS fundamentals updated: debt from $0 to $4.34 billion, cash position revised upward. Operator profile and comparative position updated. Thesis aggregate figures reflect updated NBIS balance sheet.

Sources

• Nebius $3.75B Convertible Notes Proposed (Mar 17, 2026)
• Nebius $4.34B Convertible Notes Closed (Mar 20, 2026)

The Deal

CIFR executed its third data center campus lease: a 15-year agreement with an investment-grade hyperscale tenant to develop a new HPC data center at one of its existing sites. Contract value undisclosed. Third hyperscaler-grade counterparty in under a year, following AWS (Black Pearl) and Fluidstack/Google (Barber Lake).

The Revolver

Separately, Cipher closed a $200 million Morgan Stanley-led revolving credit facility with a $50 million accordion, undrawn at close. The step-down pricing tied to leverage reflects institutional confidence in Cipher's contracted cash flows.

What Changed

Cipher now has three hyperscaler-grade counterparties; contracted revenue remains $9.3 billion (the third campus value is additive). CIFR profile and comparative position updated.

Source

• Cipher Digital Business Updates (Mar 25, 2026)

The Deal

NBIS announced a five-year AI infrastructure supply agreement with Meta Platforms valued at up to approximately $27 billion. The deal consists of $12 billion in dedicated GPU capacity across multiple locations, plus up to $15 billion in additional available compute capacity from upcoming Nebius clusters. One of the first large-scale deployments of NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform. Delivery begins early 2027. 2026 guidance remains unchanged.

The Escalation

This expands the $3 billion Meta agreement signed in November 2025, which was constrained by available supply. The CEO's shareholder letter at the time was explicit: demand was overwhelming, and the contract was limited to available capacity. Four months later, Meta committed $27 billion to secure what it couldn't get the first time. The single contract exceeds Nebius's pre-announcement market cap of approximately $25 billion.

What Changed

Contracted backlog: Microsoft $17.4 billion plus Meta $27 billion, now exceeding $44 billion, more than double the prior $20.4 billion. Aggregate thesis contracted revenue updated to approximately $112 billion across seven operators. Three counterparties have now committed capital at scale: Microsoft, Meta, and NVIDIA ($2 billion equity), validation no other operator matches.

Updated Pages

Thesis updated with revised Meta commitment. Timeline and metrics updated accordingly.

Source

• Nebius: AI Infrastructure Agreement with Meta (Mar 16, 2026)

The Facility

WULF entered a 364-day, $500 million delayed-draw senior secured bridge facility, led by Morgan Stanley, to finance construction at the Hawesville, Kentucky site acquired February 2.

What This Signals

Hawesville was acquired six weeks ago with 480 MW of immediate power availability. Dedicated financing arrived before the first shovel. The pace of capital formation matches the pace of site acquisition: KY/MD acquisitions in early February, bridge financing for KY in mid-March. The capital structure continues to scale: over $5 billion in long-term notes across Lake Mariner and Abernathy, now supplemented by bridge financing for the newest site.

Updated Pages

Thesis updated with bridge facility details. Timeline and metrics updated accordingly.

Source

• WULF 8-K: Delayed-Draw Bridge Credit Agreement (Mar 13, 2026)

The Structure

NBIS disclosed a private placement with NVIDIA: a pre-funded warrant for roughly $2 billion of Class A shares at a nominal strike, with a six-month lockup. Proceeds are earmarked for full-stack AI cloud development and greenfield data center construction.

The Partnership

The capital comes with a strategic partnership spanning AI factory design, inference and agentic stack development, multi-generation NVIDIA hardware deployment including the Rubin platform, and GPU fleet health monitoring. The stated target is more than 5 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems across Nebius by end of 2030.

What This Signals

NVIDIA already held a small position from Nebius's $700 million 2024 raise. This is a different order of magnitude. $2 billion is equity, not a purchase agreement. NVIDIA doesn't earn revenue from this. They earn it if Nebius succeeds. The investment reflects a judgment that Nebius is building the right infrastructure for the next phase of AI compute, and that NVIDIA needs that infrastructure to exist.

The validation picture for Nebius is now singular among the seven operators. Microsoft committed $17.4 billion. Meta committed $3 billion. Google took 14% equity in TeraWulf. NVIDIA took direct equity in Nebius. No other operator has attracted both a hyperscaler as a customer and a chip manufacturer as a direct investor. The circularity argument will follow: NVIDIA invests in companies that buy its chips. It's not wrong. It's also not the complete picture. Jensen Huang's framing in the joint press release was explicit: agentic AI is driving compute demand, and Nebius is building the cloud for the agentic era. That isn't boilerplate. It's a signal about where NVIDIA believes the next large-scale GPU deployment happens.

Section 14 updated with both the Q4 2025 earnings recap and this investment.

Source

NBIS Form 6-K, SEC EDGAR, filed March 11, 2026. Exhibit 99.1 is the joint press release. All figures sourced directly from the filing.

The Offering

APLD announced a proposed $2.15 billion senior secured notes offering due 2031 to fund construction of 200 MW at Polaris Forge 2 in North Dakota. Private placement, not yet priced.

Structure

Project-level debt backed by contracted cash flows and secured by the project assets, with parent completion guarantees. It funds construction against the $5 billion lease with an undisclosed U.S. investment-grade hyperscaler announced October 2025, insulating the parent balance sheet. Same structure as Polaris Forge 1.

Capital Stack

Combined with the $2.35B Polaris Forge 1 notes from November 2025, total project-level debt financing reaches $4.5 billion across both campuses. Second time Applied Digital has converted a hyperscaler commitment into project-level debt. Execution at Polaris Forge 1, where 100 MW delivered on time, likely contributed to market appetite.

Updated Pages

APLD operator profile updated with Polaris Forge 2 financing details. Timeline expanded with March 2026 entry. Source added to Section 8.

Source

• Applied Digital: Proposed Offering of $2.15B Senior Secured Notes (Mar 2, 2026)

The Numbers

RIOT reported full-year 2025 revenue of $647.4M, up 72%, with Bitcoin Mining at $576.3M and Engineering at $64.7M. The GAAP net loss of $663M is nearly all noncash (depreciation, stock comp, settlements, impairments), and adjusted EBITDA fell to $13M from $463M as mining economics compressed and data center revenue had barely started.

AMD Lease

First phase of the AMD data center lease at Rockdale commenced operations and began generating revenue as of January 2026. Contract signed January 16. Operational within the same month. First HPC revenue in company history. The Rockdale site has expansion potential to 200 MW total under AMD's option rights.

Liquidity

Over $1.9B in total liquidity: roughly 18,000 BTC (~$1.6B at year-end) plus $309.8M cash. The largest liquidity position among the five core operators, letting Riot self-fund development without project-level debt. In-house engineering (ESS Metron, E4A Solutions) provides vertically integrated construction.

What's Missing

Smallest contracted base in the thesis: the AMD lease is $311M to $1B with extensions, against multi-billion contracts at the other four core operators. Corsicana is the gap, 1 GW of approved power with reported hyperscaler interest but no signed contract. A Corsicana lease converts RIOT from potential to contracted. Until then, the position is the power portfolio and the liquidity to develop it.

Source

• Riot Platforms FY2025 Financial Results (Mar 2, 2026)

The Numbers That Matter

CIFR reported Q4 revenue of $60M (a miss) with a $734M GAAP net loss, nearly all noncash. The headline numbers are irrelevant to the thesis; what matters is construction, financing, and pipeline advancement.

Construction On Schedule

Both Barber Lake (300 MW, Fluidstack/Google) and Black Pearl (300 MW, AWS) confirmed on schedule and on budget, with most long-lead equipment secured and Black Pearl repurposing existing infrastructure for AWS.

NOI Projection

Management disclosed $669M average annualized net operating income from October 2026 through September 2036, rising to $754M by 2035. First concrete framework for modeling the revenue inflection from contracted capacity. Against a ~$5.9B market cap, this is the valuation anchor the market has been missing.

Financing Complete

Three bond offerings total $3.73B, the Black Pearl notes pricing a full point below Barber Lake and trading above par. The CFO stated no additional equity is needed for contracted developments; unrestricted liquidity $754M.

Strategic Pivot Complete

Company rebranded to Cipher Digital and sold its JV mining interests to Canaan, reducing Bitcoin holdings toward a full exit by year-end. Only remaining mining is Odessa through July 2027.

Pipeline

Stingray (100 MW, Texas) is interconnection-approved with a preferred tenant in advanced negotiations; Ulysses (Ohio) has multiple hyperscalers in data rooms; Reveille and additional sites are being marketed.

Updated Pages

CIFR profile updated with construction, financing, NOI, and pipeline; Category Errors reflects the rebrand and mining exit. Timeline and catalysts updated.

Source

• Cipher Digital Q4 2025 Business Update (Feb 24, 2026)

The Numbers

NBIS reported Q4 revenue of $227.7M (up 547% YoY) against ~$247.5M street consensus. Full year revenue came in at $529.8M, upper half of $500M-$550M guidance. The miss is a modeling problem, not an execution problem: analysts anchored above the high end of company guidance at $548M.

ARR Blowout

Year-end ARR hit $1.25B against $900M-$1.1B guidance, a 25% beat at the top. 2026 ARR guidance of $7B-$9B reaffirmed without hedging. Core AI business was 94% of Q4 revenue ($214.2M), with EBITDA margin progressing from 10% (Q2) to 19% (Q3) to 24% (Q4).

Capacity Expansion

Active power reached ~170 MW against a 100 MW target. Contracted power now exceeds 2 GW (was 800 MW), with the target raised to 3+ GW by year-end 2026. Total sites expanded to 16 announced, mostly owned rather than colocation.

Hyperscaler Execution

Microsoft's first tranche delivered November 2025 on schedule; both Meta tranches delivered on time. Deferred revenue reached $1.58B, prepayments awaiting recognition as capacity deploys.

Balance Sheet

Cash $3.7B with zero debt. Group adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow both turned positive. Full-year capex $4.1B.

Updated Pages

Metrics updated to Q4 2025 figures. Market caps updated across all seven operators. Timeline updated with 9-site expansion announcement.

Source

• Nebius Q4 2025 Financial Results (Feb 12, 2026)
• Nebius Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter (Feb 12, 2026)

The Miss

IREN reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $185M against $281M consensus. AI Cloud Services came in at $17M versus $31M expected. Bitcoin mining revenue fell from $233M to $167M as capacity transitions to GPU workloads. The company is in the gap between killing mining revenue and ramping AI Cloud.

Financing Closed

$3.6B GPU financing secured for Microsoft contract at sub-6% interest. Combined with Microsoft's $1.9B prepayment, 95% of GPU-related capex is now funded. Cash position reached $2.8B as of January 31, 2026. Over $9.2B in total funding secured year-to-date.

Oklahoma Campus

New 1.6 GW data center campus announced in Oklahoma, with grid studies complete and power ramping from 2028. Total secured power portfolio now exceeds 4.5 GW.

BC Contracts Progress

Prince George now has $400M ARR under contract. Additional $500M+ ARR in active negotiation for remaining British Columbia capacity. Horizon 1-4 construction for Microsoft progressing on schedule.

Updated Pages

Metrics updated to Q2 FY26 figures. Power portfolio references updated from 3 GW to 4.5+ GW across thesis sections.

Source

• IREN Q2 FY26 Results (Feb 5, 2026)

Phase I Delivery Imminent

GLXY Q4 2025 earnings confirm first Helios data hall delivery to CoreWeave by end of Q1 2026. Full 133 MW Phase I on track for H1 2026. Building dried in, commissioning underway, 1,000+ workers on site.

Phase II Already Started

Earthwork, concrete, and steelwork underway. Long-lead equipment purchase orders issued for 260 MW build. Management describes Helios as "first step" in multi-gigawatt, multi-tenant, multi-campus platform.

Pipeline Expands

1.8 GW in additional ERCOT applications beyond approved 1.6 GW. Evaluated 100+ campuses across U.S. for expansion beyond Helios. 830 MW being shopped to investment-grade tenants.

Updated Pages

Timeline includes earnings event. Metrics updated to FY 2025 figures. Sources include Q4 2025 earnings release.

Source

• Galaxy Digital Q4 2025 Earnings (Feb 3, 2026)

Financing the AWS Facility

CIFR announced $2 billion senior secured notes offering for Black Pearl, a 300 MW HPC data center in Wink, Texas. Facility fully pre-leased to Amazon Data Services under triple-net lease with 3% annual escalators.

Amazon Guarantee Structure

Amazon.com Inc. guarantees base rent and operating expenses. Amazon also covers construction cost overruns above $9.5M per IT megawatt. This structure makes the project extremely bankable. Hence the $2B raise against a single facility.

Capital Recycling

Cipher receives $232.5M reimbursement for prior equity contributions to the project. Money in, development progresses, financing closes, money comes back. Available for the next site.

Updated Pages

Timeline includes financing event. Thesis section updated with Black Pearl facility name and Amazon guarantee structure.

Source

• Cipher $2B Notes Offering (Feb 3, 2026)

Portfolio Doubles

WULF announced strategic acquisitions of two brownfield infrastructure sites, adding 1.5 GW to their portfolio. Total capacity reaches 2.8 GW across five sites with 643 MW contracted and 2.2 GW owned pipeline.

Kentucky: Hawesville

Former industrial site with 480 MW of immediate power availability, an energized substation, and direct transmission. Strategic Midwest location.

Maryland: Morgantown Generating Station

Grid-connected generation with 210 MW operational, expandable to 1 GW. Near Washington D.C., establishing TeraWulf in the PJM market; closing subject to FERC approval.

Updated Pages

Timeline includes acquisition event. Thesis section reflects five-site portfolio and four-region geographic diversification.

Source

• TeraWulf KY/MD Acquisitions Press Release (Feb 2, 2026)

Full Coverage

The Timeline page now covers all seven operators and industry events from 2018 through 2028. RIOT, IREN, and NBIS join the four operators added January 30.

Key Additions

• RIOT: 2021 Whinstone acquisition ($651M, 750 MW), Corsicana buildout (1 GW approved), AI/HPC evaluation of 600 MW remaining capacity
• IREN: 2018 founding, Nasdaq IPO, Childress County acquisition, $9.7B Microsoft GPU cloud contract, Sweetwater Hub buildout to 2 GW
• NBIS: Yandex origins through Russia sanctions, Nebius rebrand, $700M NVIDIA raise, $17.4B Microsoft contract, $3B Meta deal

Also Updated

Industry events now included: Bitcoin halvings, China mining ban, Ethereum Merge, ChatGPT and GPT-4 launches, spot Bitcoin ETF approval, NVIDIA Blackwell announcement, CoreWeave emergence, and hyperscaler spending commitments. Site dates updated to February 2026.

New Coverage

The Timeline page now includes comprehensive coverage of GLXY, CIFR, and WULF alongside APLD. Timeline extends back to 2018 with Galaxy Digital's founding and traces each company through their public listings, infrastructure buildouts, and hyperscaler contracts.

Key Additions

• GLXY: 2018 founding, TSX listing, 2022 Helios acquisition, 2025 CoreWeave $15B contract, Nasdaq listing
• CIFR: 2021 SPAC merger, Texas operations, 2024 Barber Lake acquisition, 2025 Fluidstack and AWS deals totaling $9.3B
• WULF: 2021 founding and listing, Lake Mariner buildout, 2025 Fluidstack deals with Google backing totaling $16B+

Coming

Timeline coverage for RIOT, IREN, and NBIS in progress.

New Page

Added Timeline page showing corporate history and industry events in chronological order. The preview release covers APLD with other operators to follow.

Purpose

The thesis is dense. Some prefer reading it linearly. Others want to see how the pieces fit together chronologically. When did APLD pivot to HPC. Where does the CoreWeave contract fit in the broader narrative. The timeline serves the second group.

Coming

Full coverage of all seven operators and industry events. Each company requires cross-referencing press releases and news coverage to get dates and details right.

Development

NVIDIA invested an additional $2 billion in CoreWeave at $87.20 per share, becoming the company's second-largest shareholder. This follows their existing $3.3 billion stake and the $6.3 billion capacity backstop agreement through 2032 disclosed in September. Total NVIDIA exposure to CoreWeave now exceeds $11 billion.

Thesis Implications

CoreWeave is the primary counterparty for APLD ($11 billion in contracts) and GLXY ($15 billion+ projected). Counterparty risk was identified as a key bear case in Section 15. This investment materially changes that calculus. The relevant question shifts from "can CoreWeave pay?" to "can NVIDIA afford for CoreWeave to fail?" Jensen Huang's statement framed CoreWeave as "the foundation of the AI industrial revolution." That's dependency language, not investment language.

Source

• NVIDIA/CoreWeave Press Release (Jan 26, 2026)

New Page

Added Metrics page providing a fundamentals snapshot across all seven operators. Tracks cash, debt, revenue, contracted value, and enterprise value for quick comparative analysis.

EV/Contract Ratio

The page introduces EV/Contract as a key comparative metric. This ratio divides enterprise value by total contracted revenue to show how much the market is paying per dollar of committed future cash flows. A lower ratio suggests the market is discounting the contracts more heavily. A higher ratio suggests the market is pricing in execution confidence or expansion optionality. Comparing EV/Contract across operators reveals relative valuation disparities even when absolute contract sizes differ substantially.

Metrics Tracked

• Cash and debt positions
• Quarterly revenue (most recent reported)
• Contracted revenue totals
• Enterprise value and EV/Contract ratios
• Capacity metrics (live, contracted, pipeline)

Site Updates

• Resource cards added to landing page for Pipeline and Metrics
• Metrics accessible via direct link or from operators section

Development

Applied Digital broke ground on Delta Forge 1, a 430 MW AI Factory campus in a strategic southern U.S. market. The campus is designed to support up to 300 MW of critical IT load across two 150-MW facilities spanning more than 500 acres. Initial operations expected mid-2027, with ability to scale considerably in 2028 and beyond.

Thesis Implications

• APLD expansion pipeline now approaches 2 GW (600 MW contracted at Polaris Forge, 800 MW option, 430 MW Delta Forge 1)
• Company in discussions with another prospective investment-grade hyperscaler for Delta Forge 1, which would be a third major customer
• Demonstrates replicable AI Factory blueprint refined through Polaris Forge campuses
• Geographic diversification beyond North Dakota

Source

• APLD Delta Forge 1 Groundbreaking Press Release (Jan 22, 2026)

New Page

Added Pipeline page tracking Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI infrastructure. These companies have power secured and infrastructure under development, but lack signed hyperscaler contracts. Not thesis positions until they close deals, but worth monitoring as the AI infrastructure buildout continues. A signed contract moves them to the main thesis.

Current Pipeline

• BITF (Bitfarms): 1.3 GW power pipeline, $750M liquidity. Panther Creek PA flagship site (350 MW) with Macquarie financing, T5 Data Centers as construction partner. Furthest along.
• HIVE (HIVE Digital): 540 MW total footprint across Sweden, Iceland, and Canada. Already generating GPU cloud revenue. Paraguay expansion underway.
• DGXX (Digi Power X): 197 MW available power in Texas ERCOT. Early stage, smallest of the three.

Site Updates

• Pipeline link added to landing page operators section
• Page accessible via direct link or from main thesis navigation

Position Initiated

RIOT enters the thesis following the announcement of a 10-year Data Center Lease with AMD and fee simple acquisition of the Rockdale site. RIOT becomes the fifth core infrastructure operator alongside APLD, GLXY, CIFR, and WULF.

Contract Details

• 10-year AMD lease: 25 MW initial at Rockdale, ~$311 million base, ~$1 billion with extensions
• Expansion options to 200 MW total potential
• Phase 1 delivery January 2026, Phase 2 May 2026

Fee Simple Acquisition

• Acquired Rockdale outright for $96 million, funded by selling Bitcoin from the balance sheet
• 700 MW grid interconnection, dedicated water and fiber
• Ownership unlocks full data center development flexibility

Compensation Restructuring

• 2026 AIP amended to tie bonuses to data center execution
• New metrics: Data Center Revenue (15%), Data Center NOI (15%)
• "Bitcoin Yield" metric eliminated
• Incentives now fully aligned with AI infrastructure pivot

Thesis Significance

AMD as counterparty expands thesis beyond hyperscalers to chipmakers building inference capacity. RIOT's 1.7 GW Texas portfolio (Rockdale 700 MW + Corsicana 1 GW) positions them similarly to other core operators. Corsicana has reported hyperscaler interest (Microsoft, Amazon) but no signed contracts yet. Smallest contracted base in thesis currently, but first contract often precedes rapid accumulation.

Structure Changes

• Core operators: 4 → 5 (added RIOT as §12)
• Total operators: 6 → 7
• Total sections: 15 → 16
• IREN renumbered to §13, NBIS to §14
• Bear Cases renumbered to §15, Rebuttals to §16

Aggregate Figures Updated

• Core contracted revenue: $57B → $58B
• Total contracted revenue: $87B → $88B
• Combined market cap: $70-75B → $80-85B

Sources

• RIOT AMD Lease & Rockdale Acquisition Press Release (Jan 16, 2026)
• RIOT CFO Transition & Compensation Changes (Jan 2, 2026)
• RIOT SEC Filings

Capacity Update

GLXY announced ERCOT approval of an additional 830 MW at the Helios data center campus in West Texas. This doubles total ERCOT-approved, utility-contracted capacity to over 1.6 GW.

Key Details

• Total approved capacity now 1.6 GW (was 800 MW), via completed interconnection studies and a utility service agreement
• CoreWeave holds the original 800 MW; the new 830 MW is available for additional customers
• Ultimate buildout potential remains 3.5 GW

Thesis Implications

This approval validates the temporal moat thesis. Galaxy acquired Helios in December 2022 for $65M. Three years later, they've doubled their approved capacity through ERCOT's queue, a process new entrants would need 5+ years to replicate. The 830 MW represents expansion runway for additional hyperscaler relationships beyond CoreWeave.

Source

Galaxy Digital Press Release (Jan 15, 2026)

New Content

Added dedicated APLD Revenue Analysis page with detailed breakdown of Q2 FY26 economics. The analysis reverse-engineers the per-MW run rate from partial-quarter data using actual energization dates (Phase I: Oct 27, Phase II: Nov 24).

Key Findings

• $12M lease revenue on ~23% utilization implies a ~$52M full-quarter run rate
• Implied rate of ~$2.08M per MW exceeds the contract range
• Stabilized 600 MW implies ~$1.25B annual HPC lease revenue

Site Updates

Link added to APLD section (§8) pointing to the new analysis. Page will be updated quarterly as new data becomes available.

Results

APLD reported Q2 FY26 results (quarter ended November 30, 2025). Revenue of $126.6 million, up 250% year over year. First HPC lease revenue recognized: $12 million from the 100 MW facility at Polaris Forge 1. Adjusted EBITDA of $20.2 million. Adjusted net income at breakeven.

Execution Milestones

• 100 MW facility delivered on schedule, fully energized
• 150 MW facility under construction, expected in 2026
• Polaris Forge 2 (200 MW) broke ground, full capacity early 2027

Balance Sheet

• Cash $2.3 billion against $2.6 billion total debt
• $2.35 billion senior secured notes closed
• Macquarie preferred equity: $900 million drawn of $5 billion

Forward Guidance

Management raised guidance, now expecting to exceed $1 billion NOI within five years. Company disclosed advanced discussions with a third investment-grade hyperscaler across multiple regions including additional Dakota sites and southern U.S. markets.

Position Initiated

NBIS (Nebius Group) added to the thesis as an adjacent position. Nebius operates the same GPU cloud model as IREN: own the hardware, sell compute. Two hyperscaler contracts totaling $20.4B:

• Microsoft: $17.4B over 5 years (option to $19.4B), Vineland NJ data center
• Meta: $3B over 5 years, deployed within 3 months of signing

Already generating revenue at scale, unlike most operators in the thesis. Power portfolio targeting 2.5 GW contracted by end of 2026.

Position Reframed

IREN moved from core thesis to adjacent position. The $9.7B Microsoft contract remains compelling. The 3 GW power portfolio is real. But IREN sells compute, not infrastructure. Buildings don't depreciate on NVIDIA's release cycle. GPUs do.

This isn't a downgrade. It's a categorization correction. The core thesis is "Follow the Watts": power as constraint, infrastructure as product. IREN monetizes power differently than APLD, GLXY, CIFR, and WULF. The adjacent category acknowledges this distinction.

Thesis Structure

Sections reorganized to reflect the core/adjacent distinction:

• Core Four: APLD (§8), GLXY (§9), CIFR (§10), WULF (§11). Colocation model.
• Adjacent Two: IREN (§12), NBIS (§13). GPU cloud model.

Total sections increased from 14 to 15. Part IV now covers six operators. Part V (Bear Cases, Rebuttals) renumbered accordingly.

Aggregate Figures Updated

• Total contracted revenue: $67B → $87B across six operators
• Combined market cap: $20-25B → $40-50B (including NBIS at ~$21B)
• Operator count references updated throughout (five → six)

Comparison Section Expanded

The pattern comparison in Section 11 (WULF) now includes both adjacent positions. Each dimension (contracted revenue, counterparty, expansion runway, execution status, business model, category error, hyperscaler validation) updated to reflect NBIS alongside IREN.

Sources Added

Seven sources for NBIS section:

• Nebius Microsoft $17.4B contract PR (Sep 2025)
• Nebius Microsoft contract SEC 6-K with $19.4B option terms
• Nebius Meta $3B contract PR (Nov 2025)
• Q3 2025 earnings release
• New Jersey 300MW data center announcement
• Finland 75MW expansion announcement
• Investor relations filings

Thesis Launched

Follow the Watts published with five operators: APLD, GLXY, IREN, CIFR, WULF. Core argument: power scarcity creates infrastructure moats. Contracted revenue from hyperscalers and neoclouds provides visibility. Market mispricing due to crypto categorization creates opportunity.

14 sections across 5 parts. Approximately $67B in contracted revenue across operators at time of publication.