Sources
Every figure in this thesis links to primary sources: SEC filings, official press releases, earnings transcripts, and investor presentations. Click any link to verify.
Hyperscaler Capital Expenditure & Earnings
- Earnings Alphabet Q2 2026: $44.9B quarterly capex vs $22.4B a year earlier; Google Cloud +82% to $24.8B (Jul 22, 2026) Sec 16
- Earnings Microsoft FY26 Q4: $115.9B FY additions to property & equipment vs $64.6B; Azure past $100B (Jul 29, 2026) Sec 16
- PR NVIDIA: Revenue-Share & Credit-Support Model to Finance Third-Party AI Factories (Jul 1, 2026) Sec 16
- PR Microsoft: ~2 GW Pecos, Texas Datacenter Campus (Jun 22, 2026) Sec 16
- Earnings NVIDIA Q1 FY2027: $81.6B Revenue, $91B Q2 Guide, $80B Buyback (May 20, 2026) Sec 1, 16
- Gov DOE Emergency Order 202-26-23: PJM Curtailment Authority (May 18, 2026) Sec 16
- PR Anthropic: Higher Limits with SpaceX/Colossus (May 6, 2026) Sec 16
- Earnings Microsoft FY26 Q3 Earnings: Azure +40% (Apr 29, 2026) Sec 1, 16
- Earnings Alphabet Q1 2026: Google Cloud +63%, $460B+ backlog (Apr 29, 2026) Sec 1, 16
- Earnings Amazon Q1 2026: AWS +28%, ~2 GW Trainium for OpenAI (Apr 29, 2026) Sec 1, 16
- Earnings Meta Q1 2026: 2026 capex raised to $125-145B (Apr 29, 2026) Sec 1, 16
- Earnings AMD Q1 2026: Data center +57%, Q2 guide above consensus (May 5, 2026) Sec 1, 12, 16
- Research Goldman Sachs: AI Power Demand Projections Sec 1
- Research Morgan Stanley: Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Sec 1
- Earnings Amazon Q3 2025 Earnings (Oct 30, 2025) Sec 1, 14
- Earnings Microsoft Q1 FY2026 Earnings (Oct 29, 2025) Sec 1
- Earnings Alphabet Q3 2025 Earnings Release Sec 1
- Earnings Meta Q3 2025 Earnings Sec 1
Grid & Power Infrastructure
CoreWeave CRWV
- PR CoreWeave Prices ~$3.5B Senior Notes Due 2032 ($1.25B + €2B) (Jun 11, 2026) Sec 16
- Earnings CoreWeave Q1 2026: $99.4B Backlog, $40B+ New Q1 Commitments (May 7, 2026) Sec 4, 16
- PR CoreWeave $3.1B DDTL 5.0 HPC-Backed Loan; Two Large Non-IG Customers Disclosed (May 18, 2026) Sec 16
- SEC S-1 CoreWeave S-1: $55B+ Backlog (Mar 2025) Sec 3, 8, 12, 13
- PR CoreWeave Newsroom Sec 3
- SEC All SEC Filings Sec 3, 12
- IR CoreWeave Investor Relations Sec 3
Applied Digital APLD
- Earnings APLD FY2026 Q4 & Full Year: 1,410 MW contracted, ~$36B base / ~$86B with renewals, 1.7 GW marketed, CoreWeave Building 4 assignment MOU (Jul 27, 2026) Sec 8
- PR APLD: $5B AI Factory Lease with U.S. Based Investment Grade Hyperscaler at Polaris Forge 2 (Oct 22, 2025) Sec 8
- 8-K APLD: Revolver Committed to $430M, Series G Preferred Lifted to $2.0B (Jun 26, 2026) Sec 8
- 8-K APLD: $1.59B 7.000% Senior Secured Notes Closed for Polaris Forge 1 Building 4 (Jun 16, 2026) Sec 8
- PR Applied Digital Delivers Second Building at Polaris Forge 1; 175 MW Live (Jul 1, 2026) Sec 8
- PR APLD Delta Forge 2: 210 MW Lease at Fifth Campus, ~$5.2B Base (Jun 8, 2026) Sec 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12
- PR APLD Secures Up To $550M Revolving Credit Facility (Jun 8, 2026) Sec 8
- PR APLD Prices $1.59B Senior Secured Notes for Polaris Forge 1 Building 4 (Jun 9, 2026) Sec 8
- PR APLD Polaris Forge 3: $7.5B 300 MW Lease, Crosses 1 GW Contracted (May 20, 2026) Sec 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 12
- PR APLD ChronoScale Spin-Off Completed, CHRN Begins Trading (May 5, 2026) Sec 7, 8
- PR APLD $300M Goldman Bridge Facility Closes (May 4, 2026) Sec 8
- PR APLD Delta Forge 1 $7.5B Hyperscaler Lease (Apr 23, 2026) Sec 3, 5, 8, 12
- Earnings APLD Q3 FY26 Earnings Release (Apr 8, 2026) Sec 6, 8
- PR APLD Delta Forge 1 Groundbreaking (Jan 22, 2026) Sec 8
- Earnings APLD Q2 FY26 Earnings Release (Jan 7, 2026) Sec 6, 8
- SEC 8-K APLD CoreWeave 250MW Initial Lease 8-K (May 2025) Sec 4, 8
- PR Applied Digital CoreWeave 400MW/$11B Lease (Aug 2025) Sec 3, 8
- PR APLD Second Hyperscaler $5B (Oct 2025) Sec 4, 8
- PR APLD Macquarie $5B Partnership (Oct 2025) Sec 4, 8
- PR APLD $2.35B Notes Offering (Nov 2025) Sec 2, 4, 8, 12
- Deck APLD Investor Presentation: $2.7B climate savings, site specs Sec 8
- PR APLD Phase I & II Completion Updates Sec 6, 8
- SEC APLD SEC Filings Sec 5, 8
- IR Applied Digital Investor Relations Sec 7
Galaxy Digital GLXY
- SEC 8-K GLXY Q2 2026: Phase I fully in service, ~$80M/qtr from Q3 at 90%+ margins, $1.2B+ campus average annual revenue, Merlin / Caspian / Selene, 5.7 GW pipeline (Aug 5, 2026) Sec 9
- SEC 8-K GLXY: Helios Phase II Notes Closing, $3.507B at 9.875% due Aug 2031, issued at 99.500 (Jul 28, 2026) Sec 9
- 8-K GLXY: $3.507B Helios Phase II Senior Secured Notes Launch (Jul 22, 2026) Sec 9
- 8-K GLXY Phase II Offering Presentation: $10.4B Minimum Contracted Lease Payments, 13.7% Yield on Cost (Jul 22, 2026) Sec 5, 9
- PR Galaxy Completes Helios Phase I: 133 MW Delivered to CoreWeave, Rent Commenced (Jul 6, 2026) Sec 9
- PR GLXY GalaxyOne Prime NY BitLicense + Money Transmission License (May 18, 2026) Sec 9
- Earnings GLXY Q1 2026 Earnings: First Helios data hall delivered to CoreWeave (Apr 28, 2026) Sec 9, 12
- SEC 8-K GLXY Q1 2026 Press Release Ex. 99.1 (Apr 28, 2026) Sec 9
- PR Argo Blockchain: Helios Sale to Galaxy $65M (Dec 2022) Sec 2, 4, 9
- SEC 8-K Galaxy $1.4B Project Financing 8-K (Aug 15, 2025) Sec 2, 3, 4, 9
- SEC 8-K Galaxy $460M Strategic Investment Ex. 99.1 (Oct 10, 2025) Sec 4, 9
- PR Galaxy ERCOT 830 MW Approval, 1.6 GW Total (Jan 2026) Sec 9
- Earnings GLXY Q4 2025 Earnings: Phase I Q1 delivery, Phase II construction started Sec 4, 9
- Earnings GLXY Q2 2025 Earnings Sec 9
- Deck GLXY Investor Presentation: 1,500 acres, 3.5 GW capacity Sec 9
- PR GLXY CoreWeave Phase I Agreement (March 2025) Sec 4, 9
- SEC GLXY SEC Filings Sec 9
- IR Galaxy Digital Investor Relations Sec 7
IREN IREN
- SEC 8-K IREN: Completion of Mirantis Acquisition, ~12.6M shares plus ~$40M (Aug 4, 2026) Sec 13
- 8-K IREN: $2.8B New Customer Contracts, 2026 ARR Target Raised Above $4B (Jul 20, 2026) Sec 3, 5, 13
- DEFA14A IREN: Letter to Shareholders from the Independent Chair on Founder Equity Awards (Jul 9, 2026) Sec 13
- PR IREN Closes ~$3.65B Investment-Grade GPU Financing for Microsoft Contract (Jun 1, 2026) Sec 13
- PR IREN Completes Nostrum Acquisition (490 MW, Spain); First Australian Campus (800 MW) (Jun 2026) Sec 13
- Earnings IREN Q3 FY26 + NVIDIA $3.4B Cloud + 5 GW DSX Partnership + Nostrum/Mirantis (May 7, 2026) Sec 3, 5, 7, 12, 13
- PR NVIDIA-IREN Strategic Partnership: 5 GW DSX, $2.1B Warrant (May 7, 2026) Sec 13
- PR IREN Q2 FY26 Results: $3.6B GPU financing, Oklahoma (Feb 2026) Sec 12, Metrics
- PR IREN Microsoft $9.7B Contract (Nov 2025) Sec 3, 12
- SEC 8-K IREN Dell $5.8B Equipment 8-K (Nov 2025) Sec 3, 12
- Deck IREN Investor Presentation: 4.5+ GW portfolio, Childress, liquid cooling Sec 12
- PR IREN News Releases Sec 12
- SEC IREN SEC Filings: Contract details, deployment phases Sec 12
- IR IREN Investor Relations Sec 7, 12
Cipher Digital CIFR
- SEC 8-K CIFR Q2 2026 Business Update: Black Pearl delivered two months early, rent commenced, Apollo option up to 900 MW (Aug 4, 2026) Sec 10
- Deck CIFR Q2 2026 Investor Presentation: 700 MW contracted, ~$11.4B, ~$793M average annualized NOI, ~5.3 GW portfolio across 11 sites (Aug 4, 2026) Sec 10
- SEC 8-K Cipher Digital / Stingray Compute LLC $810M Senior Secured Notes (Jun 8, 2026) Sec 10
- SEC 8-K Cipher Digital Q1 2026 Business Update: $11.4B contracted, $787M avg NOI, 907 MW (May 5, 2026) Sec 3, 5, 7, 10
- SEC 8-K Cipher Digital Q1 2026 Investor Presentation (May 5, 2026) Sec 10
- ER Cipher Digital Q4 2025: Construction on track, $669M NOI projection (Feb 2026) Sec 6, 7, 10
- PR Cipher $2B Notes for Black Pearl, Amazon Pre-Lease (Feb 2026) Sec 4, 10
- PR Cipher Mining AWS $5.5B Contract (Nov 2025) Sec 3, 10
- PR Cipher Fluidstack Initial $3B (Sep 2025) Sec 4, 10
- PR Cipher Fluidstack 56MW Expansion (Nov 2025) Sec 10
- Deck Cipher Investor Presentation: 3.4 GW pipeline, Barber Lake specs Sec 10
- PR Cipher Digital Press Releases Sec 4, 10
- SEC Cipher SEC Filings: Contract 8-Ks, termination provisions Sec 10, 11
- IR Cipher Digital Investor Relations Sec 7
TeraWulf WULF
- Earnings WULF Q2 2026: 102 MW live after CB-3, $600M of Google credit support effective, Muskie, Chesapeake FERC authorization, entire 50.1% Abernathy interest sold (Aug 5, 2026) Sec 11
- Deck WULF Q2 2026 Investor Update: 839 MW contracted critical IT, ~$27B contracted revenue, ~$1.5B average annual NOI, 2.1 GW pipeline (Aug 5, 2026) Sec 11
- PR TeraWulf: 20-Year Anthropic Lease at Justified Data (~$19B, 401 MW) + Abernathy JV Majority Sale (Jul 6, 2026) Sec 11
- PR TeraWulf Muskie / Eastern Kentucky 1 GW Campus Acquisition (May 26, 2026) Sec 11
- Earnings TeraWulf Q1 2026: Lake Mariner 60 MW Core42 Energized, $21M HPC Revenue (May 8, 2026) Sec 7, 11, 12
- PR TeraWulf Fluidstack Initial: $3.7B, Google $1.8B backstop, 8% equity (Aug 2025) Sec 4, 11
- PR TeraWulf CB-5 Expansion: $6.7B total, Google 14% equity (Aug 2025) Sec 4, 11
- PR TeraWulf Texas JV: $9.5B 25-year, 168 MW Abernathy (Oct 2025) Sec 3, 4, 11
- ER TeraWulf Q3 2025: $7.2M HPC revenue, $50.6M total (Nov 2025) Sec 11
- Deck TeraWulf Q3 2025 Investor Presentation Sec 1, 2, 11
- SEC TeraWulf SEC Filings: Contract 8-Ks, Google backstop terms Sec 11
- PR TeraWulf KY/MD Acquisitions: 1.5 GW added, 2.8 GW total portfolio (Feb 2026) Sec 11
Riot Platforms RIOT
- SEC 8-K RIOT Q2 2026: 20-year, 191 MW lease with a leading frontier AI lab at Rockdale, ~$9.1B base / ~$16.1B with extensions, $573M Morgan Stanley interim facility (Aug 10, 2026) Sec 12
- Earnings RIOT Q2 2026 Results and Strategic Highlights: 241 MW contracted, ~$9.8B, AMD initial 25 MW delivered on time and on budget (Aug 10, 2026) Sec 12
- PR RIOT: AMD Data Center Lease and Fee Simple Rockdale Acquisition (Jan 16, 2026) Sec 12
- PR RIOT / Terrestrial Energy: MOU for up to 4 GW of Nuclear-Paired Data Centers (May 6, 2026) Sec 12
Nebius Group NBIS
- SEC 6-K NBIS Q2 2026: revenue $582.3M (+454%), adjusted EBITDA $236.2M, cash $8.0B (Aug 12, 2026) Sec 14
- IR Nebius Q2 2026 Shareholder Letter: four $1B+ contracts, $20-25M ACV per MW, 1yr 10mo payback, 5 GW year-end contracted power target (Aug 12, 2026) Sec 14
- 6-K NBIS: $775M First Senior Secured Debt Facility, SOFR+250, Due 2030 (Jul 17, 2026) Sec 14
- PR Nebius: Asset-Light Infrastructure Partnership Model (Jul 15, 2026) Sec 14
- PR NBIS UK Expansion: ~£1.7B, Three New NVIDIA Deployments, 65 MW by 2027 (Jun 8, 2026) Sec 14
- SEC 6-K NBIS Q1 2026: $399M Revenue (+684%), 2026 Capex Guide $20-25B, Pennsylvania 1.2 GW (May 13, 2026) Sec 3, 5, 7, 12, 14
- PR NBIS Bloom Energy Master Fuel-Cell Agreement: $2.6B / 328 MW (May 20, 2026) Sec 14
- PR NBIS Eigen AI Acquisition $643M: Token Factory inference platform (May 1, 2026) Sec 14
- PR Nebius Meta $27B AI Infrastructure Agreement (Mar 16, 2026) Sec 14
- SEC 6-K Nebius NVIDIA $2B Investment 6-K (Mar 11, 2026) Sec 14
- Earnings Nebius Q4 2025: $1.25B ARR, 3+ GW target, 16 sites (Feb 2026) Sec 14
- PR Nebius Microsoft $17.4B Contract (Sep 2025) Sec 14
- SEC 6-K Nebius Microsoft Contract 6-K: $19.4B option terms (Sep 2025) Sec 14
- PR Nebius Meta $3B Contract, Q3 2025 Results (Nov 2025) Sec 14
- PR Nebius New Jersey 300MW Data Center (Mar 2025) Sec 14
- PR Nebius Finland 75MW Expansion Sec 14
- IR Nebius Investor Relations: Capacity targets, financing Sec 14